https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/02/can-macron-be-europes-delegate.html
But the same domestic uncertainty permits new opportunities for French leadership in a fragile and decisive transatlantic environment. Ironically, the domestic chaos enables Macron’s leadership because the French constitution and its political system endow the president with such a decisive role. Thus, compared to others, French defense and foreign policies are unlikely to be contested, and Macron’s office might very well become Washington’s “phone number to Europe.”
It is possible that this time could be different, though, and that a far-right- or hard-left-dominated parliament could lead to a fundamental shift in France’s role in the world, unlike past left-right cohabitations.
European leaders will have to demonstrate their relevance rather than wait until it’s too late. But because France’s domestic paralysis will persist, Macron will likely continue to seize leadership through innovative proposals.
This won’t prevent Paris from making the wrong decisions, but at least Macron retains far more latitude than what is commonly believed in trying to chart Europe’s new course. Although there are significant risks for a dramatic reversal if the upcoming 2027 presidential elections yield a far-right or hard-left victory, do not rule out France yet to lead Europe through the upheavals of 2025.